Desenvolvimento de um modelo de simulação para análise de risco e viabilidade econômica da cafeicultura mineira

Abstract

Coffee cultivation is one of the most dynamic sectors of agriculture in Minas Gerais, having great importance in the economic, political and social scenario of the State. The coffee, besides being highlighted as one of the main export items, is also evidenced by the fact that it generates a great number of jobs and the is a factor of fixation of labor in the rural environment. However, the unpredictability of climatic variables, market conditions and product, and the existence of pests and diseases make coffee one of the most volatile commodities on the market. Therefore, because to its importance and the innumerable factors that can affect this sector, efforts, strategies, planning and policies to support coffee growers are essential, to perpetuate the gains and sustainability of this activity. Thus, the creation of instruments such as simulation models of agricultural properties are of great value since they make it possible to understand and evaluate the impact of changes in crop production and / or management systems, as well as the effects of changes in policies public and agricultural markets on rural properties, serving as a subsidy to producers and other stakeholders. Therefore, the study in question intends to develop a Monte Carlo model for the analysis of risk and economic viability of the coffee industry of Minas Gerais. In addition to the study through feasibility analysis indicators, such as NPV, the present study used the Monte Carlo simulation method, which ensures the possibility of analyzing the risks of this project in front of its characteristics. The study was carried out in two price scenarios - local and national - and in five properties in the State of Minas Gerais: Capelinha, Guaxupé, Manhumirim, Monte Carmelo and Santa Rita do Sapucaí. The data were obtained through several sources such as CNA, CEPEA, MAPA and IBGE, with TMA being used at 8.5% per year. The results point to non-viability of the implantation of the coffee activity in the region of Minas Gerais in the two price scenarios, Capelinha being the region that presents the worse values of VPL e and Manhumirim the best. Following, a second analysis was carried out taking out the cost of implantation in view of the existence of many properties in the region and the results of non-viability observed, being also shown the impossibility of this activity, despite improvement in results. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was performed on some variables considered to be influencing profitability, such as cost, price and productivity,where was verified the influence of cost variable on the profitability of the coffee activity. In view of this, it is important to highlight the urgency of adopting more efficient administrative practices, mainly on cost, starting with the optimization of productive resources, the use of mechanisms that minimize the risks of commercialization and also the search for the increase of productivity, departing from the appropriate choice and operation of technological innovations. In addition, the government must act in order to provide a better environment for this activity, as well as to employ public policies ensuring and guaranteeing knowledge and tools for improvement in the application of techniques of rural administration and insertion to monitoring of technology. Rural extension and rural credit would be some of the options.