Modelo de propagação de incêndio utilizando autômatos celulares aplicado à Serra de São Domingos e áreas adjacentes

Abstract

The Serra de São Domingos Municipal Park (PMSSD), located in the city of Poços de Caldas / MG, suffers annually with the occurrence of fires, which lead to environmental, social and economic losses. The existence of a tool to predict the behavior of fires in the area would contribute to the planning of combat, and even to their prevention. In this sense, the fire propagation model is an important tool for simulating scenarios of fire propagation in different environmental conditions. In this work, the application of a probabilistic model of fire propagation, based on the cellular automata method is presented, similar to models already used to study fire dynamics in the Cerrado biome region. The model is based on probabilities B and I, related to the process of sustainability and ignition of fires, respectively; the definition of its values ​​was based on the acquisition and analysis of spatial data, as a digital terrain model; meteorological data such as humidity and speed and wind direction; and mainly characteristic of the vegetal cover. Other parameters of the model are completely empirical and defined by applying heuristic optimization algorithms. The analysis of the occurrence of fire in the area showed that most of the events occur in areas of low vegetation, and that the topography of the place, as well as the condition of the winds, directly influences the propagation of these fires. The analyzes indicate a great sensitivity of the model to variations of some meteorological parameters, which indicates the need to obtain more accurate data to better study the dynamics of fire propagation in the area. Despite this, the simulations were able to represent fire of up to 67% of the affected area when compared to the actual fire.