Modelagem Bayesiana do número de emissões da ISO 9001 nos países do continente americano e nas regiões e estados brasileiros

Abstract

The ISO 9001 is an international quality standard, which aims to the quality improvement of processes of firms in continuous flow. Several benefits are related to the employees, firms and business environment that are correlated to this standard, such as reduction of waste, increase in market share, and increase of the average laborers wage. The relationship analysis between the governance, sociocultural and macroeconomic factors, and the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued in the American continent was not identified in the literature. Another aspect that was not verified yet is the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued in the Brazilian states. Regression models are commonly used to verify the relationship between factors and the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued in countries. The Bayesian statistics has been utilized in regression models fitting, and in the verification of its significances, what has been presenting advantages, such as annexation of information before the observations, and greater estimation efficiency in cases of small sample sizes. By these facts, the objective of this project is to analyze, through regression models, via Bayesian approach, the relationship between the macroeconomic, governance and sociocultural factors and the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued in the American countries, and the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued in the Brazilian states. The following indicators were analyzed: number of legal firms, BNDES disbursement, tax revenue, gross domestic product, gross national product, total exports, total reserves, corruption control, corruption perception index, external debts, foreign direct investment, human development index, and global competitiveness index. The sociocultural and governance factors presented as important as the macroeconomic ones for the understanding the evolution of the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued in the countries. It was observed patterns in the fitted models for the states that were replicated to their respective regions. The Bayesian statistics enabled a more realistic interpretation of the modeling.