O (des)equilíbrio contábil da seguridade social no Brasil: um olhar sobre o regime geral de Previdência Social de 2000 a 2016

Abstract

The study revisits the process of consolidation Social Security and Insurance in the world and in Brazil, considering that Social Security is allocated in the large Social Security group, which also includes Social Assistance and Public Health. Comprising from the first social security models until its consolidation through the promulgation of the 1988 Federal Constitution, with the introduction of universal social rights, until the reforms that altered the constitutional basis of the Brazilian Social Security Regime. This study identifies the financing methods and benefits proposed by Social Security, which allows an analysis on Social Security accounting, considering a confrontation of methodologies, based on the accounting practiced and disclosed by the government, and the accounting according to the 1988 CF guidelines, observing the behavior of security income and expenses between the year2000 to 2016. The study also analyzes aspects that interfere with the expenditure side of the Social Security Budget, based on the accelerated process of demographic transition that has been taking place in the country. And from a revenue perspective, it observes the policies that interfere in the financing base of benefits linked to security, identifying the impacts of DRU, the trajectory of the Brazilian labor market, from the high unemployment rates and the strong presence of the informal market, in addition to tax spending policies, which jointly are responsible for the withdrawal and reduction of social contributions, in order to identify the impacts of these variables on Social Security. This analysis starts from the justification that there is a casual link between the difficulties imposed on the OSS with the economic difficulties present in the country. The main conclusion obtained by the study, lies in the fact that expenses grow at a pace that is not accompanied by revenues, which culminates in a scenario of deficit in social security in the years 2015 and 2016. Thus, the accounting practiced by the State attributes the obstacles of this budget only to social security expenses, not discussing the real problems surrounding the revenues of that budget.