Transição demográfica e transição epidemiológica no Brasil: uma análise sobre os perfis de estrutura etária e de mortalidade nas unidades federativas no País em 2015

Abstract

The objective of this work is to analyze the Demographic Transition and Epidemiological Transition processes in the 27 Federation Units of Brazil, in the year 2015. In this sense, we first seek to classify the Federation Units (UF) of Brazil according to the moment of Transition Demographic in which they are found, through analysis of the selected age structure indicators. After that, we classified the FUs according to the moment of Epidemiological Transition they are in, by analyzing the five groups of mortality from selected causes. Furthermore, we verified whether the phases found for the Demographic Transition coincide with the phases found for the Epidemiological Transition. The methodology used to carry out this work consists of the multivariate technique called Cluster Analysis or Cluster Analysis. The data obtained for this work are secondary, extracted from the IBGE, for the year 2015. Data related to mortality by groups of causes were obtained from the Datasus website, made available by the Ministry of Health. the Demographic Transition, we note that the South and Southeast regions are the most advanced regions in the entire territory, in relation to the population aging process. In contrast, the North region is characterized by a younger population, thus evidencing that it is at a more incipient stage of the Demographic Transition. Regarding the Epidemiological Transition, we found that all regions of the country still have the incidence of infectious and parasitic diseases, that is, communicable diseases. As main conclusions, we found that some groups generated from the cluster analysis for the Demographic Transition process coincide with the Epidemiological Transition groups found and that two UF showed a change in relation to the two processes, namely, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, which were allocated in the Demographic Transition group called Moderate Transition and, in the case of Epidemiological Transition, were allocated within the Epidemiological Polarization group, thus showing that despite showing indicators of population aging still incipient, they presented characteristic mortality patterns of more advanced regions in relation to the Epidemiological Transition process. Therefore, we conclude, in general, that the UFthat are in more incipient stages of the Demographic Transition tend to present themselves in stages of Epidemiological Transition in which deaths from communicable diseases are still significant. While the UF in a more advanced stage of population aging have higher indicators of mortality from non-communicable diseases, associated with population aging, but at the same time, they present proportions of still relevant communicable diseases. Thus, despite moving significantly in relation to the population aging process, Brazil experiences a scenario of Prolonged Transition, in which the increase in non-communicable chronic diseases coexists with the permanence of communicable diseases, throughout the territory, which launches challenges for public and health managers.