A influência do gasto público e do comércio internacional sobre a produtividade da agropecuária no Brasil: uma análise do período de 2015 a 2019

Abstract

The present work analyzed the influence of public spending and international trade on the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of agriculture and livestock in the Brazilian federation units, from 2015 to 2019, using public policies for the sector as a guideline, due its essentiality to the long-term economic growth. As tools, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to calculate the Total Productivity of Factors and the Panel Data model via estimation by Ordinary Least Squares, to verify the influence of public spending and international trade on agricultural productivity. The results showed that TFP grew 14.7% on average in the period, driven by changes in the technological frontier and that there is an influence of public spending and foreign trade on the productivity of Brazilian agriculture – the main objective of this dissertation. The marginal effects on the sector's TFP showed that the increase in public spending would reduce it and an increase in the international agricultural trade flow would increase productivity, everything else constant. Furthermore, when decomposing international trade into exports and imports, it was found that only imports were significant. Thereby, the dissertation contributes to the formulation of new instruments for economic and social development and offers subsidies to the government for national strategic planning and helps to adopt policies that are more adequate to the sector's needs.