Estrutura econômica-produtiva de Minas Gerais: uma análise multivariada para os anos de 2007 e 2014

Abstract

This work presents the trajectory of the recent economic-industrial development scenario of Minas Gerais state resulting of the Brazilian industrial deconcentration, which was remarkable from 1970s. The productive deconcentration phenomenon has attracted attention of researchers, who are motivated by the “polarization reversal” studies that has happened, mainly, in developed countries. In the Brazil, it has occurred in the São Paulo state in the last decades. Such phenomenon, which originally would allow greater articulation and integration of the national productive system, has not been enough to narrow regional inequalities. Moreover, recent research points to a new agglomeration process called polygonal development, now concentrated in the Center-South of Brazil. Our study is based on the researches of renowned authors who point out Minas Gerais state as the major beneficiary of the deconcentration process, taking a highlight place in the national industrial production. However, this state clearly demonstrates an uneven development among its various regions. Hence, the aim of this work is to verify the current economic-industrial scenario of Minas Gerais, in the years 2007 and 2014, through its sectoral dynamics and its locational factors based on the 66 microregions that make up the state. The database used for this study refers to the effective employment according to the economic activities of the CNAE 2.0 in the mentioned period, which is available on Annual Social Information Report (RAIS). The time interval is justified because it corresponds to the most recent period of the available data about Minas Gerais state and eight years is a period considerably able to capture changes in the studied microregions productive structure. Moreover, the Shift-Share method employed in this work suggests to manipulate two years, the initial (2007) and the final (2014), so that the smaller time interval the grater the relevance capture in such period. For treatment of the data, it was used multivariate statistical complementary methods: Shift-Share and Correlated Data Analysis; and Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis. Whole data processing was performed in the statistical software R. Among the results, one can be highlighted that Minas Gerais presents a relatively diversified productive structure among weberian, traditional and dynamic sectors, with a positive variation in the job offer between 2007 and 2014. However, one can notice that sectors of dynamic industry have demonstrated a loss of employments representativeness, which suggests the continuation of the Minas Gerais traditional productive structure. In addition, one can verify that such sectors (dynamics) are strongly concentrated in the regions located at Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte and Southern of Minas Gerais state.